Weekly Mortgage Rates

November 25, 2025

Just when I thought I was out…they pull me back in

A week ago, the odds for a December Fed rate cut had drifted down to around 30% and mortgage rates reflected the sentiment that the Fed would most likely pause at their upcoming December meeting. 

Today that has all changed with the odds now at 80% for a Fed cut next week, causing mortgage rates to improve to our best levels of the year. The question is, can we find a new lower, low from here? We have touched these levels before and retracted, so stay tuned.

The Fed Signals a Cut

It all started on Friday when the New York Fed President, John Williams came out in support of a December cut to “prevent further labor-market weakening.” This was followed by other key members voicing support. To solidify the signal to markets, Fed whisperer Nick Timiraos published an article in the WSJ titled, “Fed Chair Powell’s Allies to Open Path for December Rate Cut” highlighting the growing support in camp rate cut. 

Clear As Mud

The release of the delayed September jobs numbers last week did nothing to clear up the debate on the labor market. Depending on your bias, you could find data to support your case.

The headline number showed 119k jobs added, more than twice the estimates.  One could argue that it was a recovery from the slow summer months. But unemployment also picked up from 4.3% to 4.4%, which is the highest reading in 4 years.

We have pointed out that September news is very old now and the mixed info it provided didn’t move the needle at all. The October jobs data will only be partially released- since the data was not collected during the shutdown. It will be released along with the November data on December 16^th. All this hits after the Fed meeting.

There are plenty of signs of distress in the labor market. The Kolbessi letter points out that US employers announced 1,099,500 job cuts for the first 10 months of October. That is the second highest since 2009. The layoffs reported are mainly from economic conditions, with only 4% as the result of AI. (just thought that was interesting- The AI impact hasn’t hit yet).

What’s Ahead

Delayed reports are still trickling in. We will be watching the Fed rate cut odds closely. The Fed will also go into their media blackout by the end of this month, so anything they want to signal to markets will need to happen before then.  Mortgage rates will move in real time with the changing odds before the December 10^th meeting.

For now, enjoy the best rates of the year. Markets close early tomorrow and will be limited trading on Friday, so we also benefit from a little safe haven parking of money over the long weekend. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving!