Weekly Mortgage Rates

June 17, 2025

The economic data last week helped mortgage rates

May’s CPI inflation report showed a trend that has developed for the past few months of tame readings, with no immediate impact from tariffs visible. Still, many analysts say it is coming and just lagging as companies try to absorb some of the impact. The alternative thinking is that weaker demand could be offsetting tariff increases. It is too early to confirm.

Also seeing a trend developing over the past few weeks in the weekly jobless claims. Persistently higher new unemployment filings per week and continuing claims remaining above 1.9 million. Signaling it is becoming harder to find a job.

The geopolitical impact on rates

After the economic news last week, rates improved. Now the escalation of events between Israel and Iran have come to the forefront of investors minds.

Usually, rates improve when there is rising geopolitical tensions as investors move money to the “safe haven” of U.S. Bonds. However, concerns about rising oil prices and their inflationary impact, along with questions about the U.S remaining the global “safe haven” are creating uncertainty. Over the next few days, we will see what narrative dominates the rate path. For now, every headline is swaying the outlook.

What’s ahead

The Federal Reserve’s June meeting concludes tomorrow. A rate cut is not expected. The focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections and investors will be comparing that to the last projections for shifts in the Fed outlook.  

Market Strategy

Listings with assumable FHA or VA loans are increasingly attractive to buyers and provide an opportunity to draw buyer interest and differentiate your listing. Check your listings and let’s discuss!