Weekly Mortgage Rates

July 1, 2025

Will The Next Fed Chair Please Stand Up

After another business-as-usual Fed meeting for June where the policy stance remained unchanged. It has been reported that Trump will announce his next Fed chair choice early, rather than waiting until Powell’s term is up in May. This could undermine Powell’s control as that pick can work to influence other Fed members to vote for rate cuts sooner.

We already have a couple of those hopeful for the nomination speaking out and signaling they could be convinced to cut as early as the July meeting.  The market still is only pricing in the possibility of a cut in September.

We are still 29 days away from the July meeting and the jobs data this week and inflation readings next month can change market expectations before then. Also, those vying to be the next Fed chair could cause more dissention at the next Fed meeting to showcase their talents for the president. 

Mortgage rates will move ahead of any actual Fed action. If the market expectations flip to a July cut, mortgage rates could improve.

Tariffs = Inflation. Not so fast!

So far, the inflation data hasn’t shown much of an impact from tariffs. On Friday the key inflation measure PCE did come in a little hotter than expected. Core inflation increased 0.2% in June to an annual pace of 2.7%. But personal income and spending turned negative. The inflationary impact from tariffs could be muted by a slower economy.

Fed chair hopeful, Governor Waller on CNBC last week “I don’t think the inflation impact of Trump’s tariff’s is going to be that big…I think we have room to bring rates down.”

Rates at Key Juncture Ahead of Jobs Data

 Mortgage rates, trending lower for two weeks, are at a resistance level last seen pre-“Liberation Day”. We also touched this level briefly in March 2025 and September 2024. At that time the Jobs data is what pushed rates to the best level of the past 3 years and the weak Jobs data was the motivation for the Fed to lower the Fed rate shortly after.  

Here we are again, and this week’s employment data is again key to the direction for rates. Particularly Thursday's BLS non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate. A strong resistance level like we have now requires momentum to break out. We will see if we get it this week.

What’s Ahead

Besides the Jobs data, the Big Beautiful Bill is on the radar this week. It just passed the Senate this morning and is heading back to the House. News on revisions to the bill could impact rates with markets focused on how much it will add to the deficit and what the economic impact will be, perhaps offsetting some of the increased spending. 

Market Strategies

This week I wanted to highlight appraisal waivers as a tool to negotiate stronger offers with no appraisal contingency. More properties are getting waivers than ever before. 

Now only 10% down is required to be eligible for an appraisal waiver and the properties that qualify for an appraisal waiver has increased. This is because Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac have been collecting data from the loans we sell to them on the appraisals for well over a decade. 

If it had a loan and appraisal done with a Fannie/Freddie loan in the last 15 years, it worth checking for a waiver!

 Please note that there are two separate automated systems. One may waive and the other not and yes we can check this before you make an offer. Hope this helps!