Weekly Mortgage Rate Update- 11-28-23

Mortgage rates held steady over the holidays.  This week is starting off with rates improving slightly.   

We are now back at mortgage pricing from the 1st week of September.  The outlook has certainly pivoted on mortgage rates.  From what I can tell at this moment, we appear to have reached the peak rate and are trending steadily lower.  For the first time in a long time, I am recommending some of my clients in contract float the rate, and not lock in just yet.

The main event this week is Thursday with the Fed’s key inflation measure- Core PCE which is expected to show inflation has slowed its pace from October.  Expectations are 0.1% increase for November, in October the pace was 0.4% increase.  The slower pace of inflation growth is also going to show up in the year over year numbers, expected to come in at 3.5% down from 3.7% last month.  There is still some risk here, as a surprise to the upside on inflation could hurt our near-term rate outlook for rates to trend lower- but all evidence points to a softer reading.

Next week we will have the November unemployment data, a rise in unemployment could also help rates to improve.  I think we will have a better grasp on where we are in this cycle after these key data points are released.

Technically, we are well below that 4.50% level on the 10 year Note that I pointed out as a strong resistance level, staying well under it now which is driving rates lower.  As of this writing it is down 4bps today to 4.35%.  The 10 year trades at about 300 bps below the average 30 year mortgage rate currently for reference. 

* Specific loan program availability and requirements may vary. Please get in touch with your mortgage advisor for more information.

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