Weekly Mortgage Rates

August 19, 2025

Under Pressure

The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to a 3.7% annual pace in July, exceeding the expected 2.9% and marking the highest reading since March 2022. PPI tracks wholesale prices companies pay for raw materials. Raising the question: will businesses absorb these costs or pass them to consumers? With signs of consumer strain, companies may delay price hikes, but this may not be sustainable long-term.

Speaking of consumer strength, Retail sales rose 0.5% in July, the report shows a mix of stronger consumer spending and rising prices. When adjusted for inflation, retail sales show only 1% annual growth, indicating stagnant real growth in consumer spending.

Speaking of Pressure- All Eyes on Powell’s Speech Friday

How Powell decides to frame the future of their rate decisions in his speech at the Jackson Hole Summit Friday could be impactful on rates. Markets are anticipating a signal for the September meeting at this event.

Rate markets are quiet for now, waiting for the speech with no major economic reports to impact rates this week. Powell has cover to go either way on the rate decision. He could say that inflation remains above target, pointing to the recent inflation reports or he could cite weaker employment data/consumer strain to signal a cut and escape the pressure he has been under to do so.

And miles to go before I sleep

Like Robert Frost said in his famous poem, we have some miles to go ahead of that next Fed meeting. Two critical reports hit before the meeting:

• PCE Inflation Report (August 29): The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
• August Employment Report (September 5): Recall July’s reading and the revisions showed a weakening labor market.

These reports could shift market expectations for rate decisions despite what Powell says on Friday.

What’s Ahead 

On the technical side of things. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key driver for mortgage rates, hasn’t been able to sustainably stay below 4.20% since last September after a few failed attempts. 

This is the line in the sand we are watching to see meaningfully lower mortgage rates. Staying below 4.20% would signal a shift in the bond market outlook. For now, no momentum to break below that level, but we have the opportunity to do so on Friday.  

Today’s Rates

LICENSED BY THE CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF REAL ESTATE LICENSE A division of TYKY (DRE #01919683) (NMLS LICENSE #257773)

RATES ARE CURRENT AS OF 08-19-2025. SUBJECT TO BORROWER APPROVAL, FICO SCORE, LTV AND PROPERTY TYPE.

*APR IS BASED ON ESTIMATED FINANCE CHARGES OF $6935

**APR BASED ON ESTIMATED FINANCE CHARGES OF $16,430

***APR IS BASED ON ESTIMATED FINANCE CHARGS OF $10,969 THIS INCLUDES FHA MORTGAGE INSURA

NCE PREMIUM

****APR BASED ON ESTIMATED FINANCE CHARGES OF $8343

FEES INCLUDE 1% ORIGINATION, NO POINTS, $1095 PROCESSING AND $0 UNDERWRITING FEE    

Source info for today’s update: Wall Street Journal, MBS Highway & Rate Alert