Weekly Mortgage Rates

September 2, 2025

Slow and Steady Wins the Race    

Since mid-July, mortgage rates have been trending lower, but at a turtle’s pace. Our weekly update may not look like much has changed, but zooming out it shows a steady improvement. Current rates remain approximately .25% higher than this time last year.

Inflation Update

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE, increased from 2.8% to 2.9%, the highest since February 2024. For comparison, last year’s rate at this time was 2.6%. Markets expected this uptick in the reading, so the response was muted. The Fed’s current focus is on employment over inflation and they are prepared to let that run hotter than their target rate. 

Save the Date!

This Friday’s employment report will be key to our rate outlook. Unemployment is expected to creep up to 4.3%. This is priced in already, so we are looking for more weakness in labor to get even better pricing. 

Following this important reading, the annual revisions to the employment data will be released August 9^th. A big revision lower would improve mortgage rates. Last year the revisions showed 800k fewer jobs created than originally reported, giving us the best pricing of the year. We couldn’t hold on to that pricing then and employment started to stabilize in the reports that followed. We don’t know if that will be replayed this time, but these dates may be a good time for buyers to strike.

Market Strategies

Clients have been very sensitive to even small rate drops with mortgage applications rising on any improvement. The media has oversimplified the relationship between the Fed rate and Mortgage rates, creating confusion. Many buyers are waiting for the Fed meeting and overlooking the opportunities that lie ahead on these key economic reports. We can create value by educating clients on the upcoming key reports so they are prepared to take advantage of the opportunities that could arise.