Weekly Mortgage Rate Update 01/30/2024
Mortgage rates are holding steady ahead of the Fed tomorrow. Rates had very little reaction to the economic data with pricing slightly better overall than last week. We are back to our same trendline we have been in since the last Fed meeting on December 13th .
Fourth Quarter GDP rose 3.3%, much higher than expectations. Making the 2023 average GDP 2.5%, not bad considering that this time last year the consensus was that it would be a recession year. Conversely, the same day GDP was released, the Chicago Federal Reserve put out its National Economic Activity Index and showed that activity slowed, reporting 8 of the last 12 months in negative growth. Not sure if this muted the market reaction to the GDP, which normally would have caused rates to rise.
One thing is for sure, The PCE report showed the consumer is still spending and incomes are still growing. This was confirmed further by the last retail sales report and the recent consumer confidence reports show rising confidence from the consumer. Core PCE showed December inflation rose as expected 0.2% making the year over year now 2.9%- still above the Fed target, but the pace of increase has been slowing and now below 3.0% for the first time since 2021.
For now, markets are holding their breath ahead of the Fed meeting that ends tomorrow with Powell speaking in the afternoon. This meeting of key importance as we look for new guidance from the Fed on not only their rate outlook policy, but on any change in the Quantitative Tightening schedule that we discussed a couple weeks back.
Also, a potential market mover tomorrow is the Treasury’s refunding plan announcement. We have to repackage our debt as it matures, whether Yellen puts more supply into short term bills versus longer dated bonds could impact the demand for mortgage bonds. Remember its all supply and demand, unless the Fed is buying the debt.
|
Loan Type |
Conventional 30 year |
Conventional 15 year |
FHA 30 year |
VA 30 Year |
|
Interest rate |
6.50% |
5.875% |
5.75% |
5.999% |
|
APR |
6.658%* |
6.131%* |
6.765%** |
6.137%*** |
LICENSED BY THE CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF REAL ESTATE LICENSE A division of TYKY (DRE #01919683) (NMLS LICENSE #257773)
RATES ARE CURRENT AS OF 01-30-2024. SUBJECT TO BORROWER APPROVAL, FICO SCORE, LTV AND PROPERTY TYPE.conv
*APR IS BASED ON ESTIMATED FINANCE CHARGES OF $6935
**APR IS BASED ON ESTIMATED FINANCE CHARGS OF $10,969 THIS INCLUDES FHA MORTGAGE INSURA
NCE PREMIUM
***APR BASED ON ESTIMATED FINANCE CHARGES OF $8343
FEES INCLUDE 1% POINTS, NO Loan Origination Fee , $1095 PROCESSING AND $0 UNDERWRITING FEE
* Specific loan program availability and requirements may vary. Please get in touch with your mortgage advisor for more information.