Weekly Mortgage Rates

June 10, 2025

Mortgage rates rose slightly last week following Friday’s employment report but remain stable ahead of tomorrow’s CPI inflation data.

May’s Labor Market Reveals a Mixed Picture

The BLS employment data showed a decent number of hirings at 130k for the month of May and an inflation rate holding steady at 4.2%. In addition, bond traders focused on the average hourly earnings which came in higher than expected at 3.9% annual pace.

But we have seen continual softening in other employment reports. ADP released earlier in the week showed just 37k jobs added. The Challenger Gray report on corporate layoffs shows U.S. firms laid off 80% more workers than the same time frame last year.

My daughter graduates with a degree in Architecture this weekend from Cal Poly. Yes, we are beyond proud, and she landed a job! But the search was not easy. Several companies expressed interest in hiring her but are holding off hiring, requesting she reapply in 6 months. This speaks to a direction we have seen growing for the past 12 -18 months, a reluctancy to hire and growth that is skewed towards less quality jobs.

Stagflation Concerns

Not unrelated to the softer job outlook. The services sector, which accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic output, contracted in May. New orders hit a 2.5-year low, while prices paid surged to a 2.5-year high. This combination of slowing growth and rising prices raises stagflation risks.

 What’s Ahead

The most important event of the week is CPI inflation (tomorrow). It is expected to show a rise. The May 2025 reading will replace a milder May 2024 in the annual pace calculation. Also, looking to see what impact tariffs have. 

Even though CPI will take center stage for the week. Also watching for news on the trade talks with China. A key 10 year and 30 year treasury bond auction could also impact rates. With the risks this week, we are in a locking bias for clients. 

Strategies for a Shifting Market

The market is moving to be more favorable to buyers for the first time in years, so it is time to adapt to the changes.  Taking a page out of the builder’s handbook, seller concessions for permanent mortgage rate buydowns can improve affordability more than price cuts. Dollar for dollar, a buydown reduces monthly payments more than a comparable price reduction. Contact us to explore options for your listings.

Even though mortgage rates increased last week, my posted rates this week are the same as last week because we have a lender offering us pricing incentives right now. One of the benefits of being a mortgage broker!