Weekly Mortgage Rates

July 15, 2025

Markets Shrug Off Tariff News

Despite recent tariff escalations, markets are not reacting as strongly as they did to the initial announcements in April. Investors seem desensitized to ongoing headlines, viewing tariffs as not set in stone. Also at play are shifting views that tariffs may have a limited impact on inflation due to softer demand.

Choose Your Narrative

Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal noted that this morning’s CPI inflation report can support whatever viewpoint you hold as to the future inflation expectations. Either the worst inflationary effects of tariffs are yet to come, or their impact will be muted because weaker demand prevents companies from passing on costs.  

The pace of inflation rose in June after a few months of softer readings, are we starting to see some tariff impact?  Headline CPI increased from 2.4% to 2.7%, driven by higher energy prices. Core CPI, excluding energy, edged up from 2.8% to 2.9% annually. Ultimately, this report doesn’t shift the outlook—it remains open to interpretation. 

Fed Independence

This morning, Jamie Dimon warned that political pressure could undermine the Fed’s credibility, potentially leading to “the exact opposite of desired outcomes.” Regardless of what you may think about Chair Powell’s decision to hold rates steady, a loss of confidence in the Fed could reduce U.S. investment, pushing rates higher, even if the Fed moves to lower rates. 

What’s Ahead

This week we get to check in on how the consumer is doing with the June retail sales report and also the Fed’s Beige Book will be released. This shows economic activity across all 12 districts. Powell has mentioned several times that this report is closely monitored for shifts. Weekly jobless claims getting more attention too. The number of people remaining on unemployment nears 2 million, the highest since November 2021, signaling a softening labor market not yet reflected in official BLS reports.

Keeping things in perspective, rates edged slightly higher from last week but remain far from the worst pricing this year. But just two weeks ago, rates hit their best levels since October.  

Market Strategies

Last weekend, a client applied for a loan with me and didn’t want to provide income documents. Since they were purchasing an investment property, I recommended a DSCR loan, which qualifies based solely on rental income covering the full PITI mortgage payment. This allowed the client to bypass paperwork while securing a rate comparable to a traditional loan. This strategy is ideal for self-employed borrowers seeking investment properties but concerned about qualification requirements.