Weekly Mortgage Rates

July 29, 2025

Mortgage Rates Holding Steady: This Week Could Change That

Mortgage rates have been stuck with little momentum to shift much in either direction. However, this week’s full of market moving news.

Fed in Focus

The Federal Reserve’s meeting concludes Wednesday with its policy statement. No rate change is expected, but the statement’s tone and signals about the September meeting will be closely watched, especially after recent political pressures. Recently, two voting Fed Governors have publicly supported lowering rates. Any dissenting votes at this meeting could cause markets to price in more rate cuts for 2026. This would benefit mortgage rates now because mortgage rates move ahead of the actual policy.

Supply and Demand

The U.S. Treasury just announced a need to borrow $1.007 trillion to cover second-quarter spending, roughly $500 billion higher than earlier estimates. To address the growing deficit, either spending must decrease, or revenue must increase. Funding this deficit requires issuing more Treasury bonds, which increases the supply of bonds, and this increases rates (including mortgage rates) to attract demand. This will continue to be a major factor influencing how low mortgage rates can go.

What’s Ahead

Regardless of the Fed’s decision, they will remain data-dependent, so the news for the rest of the week will also matter. Thursday the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is released.  This is followed by all the July employment data on Friday. Shifts in inflation or employment trends could change the rate outlook.

Market Strategies

Since we all get questions from our clients about what home prices and rates will do in the future, and we don’t have a crystal ball (or a degree in economics). We rely on the experts.  As always forecasts will continue to shift, but our clients expect us to provide insight into current market conditions so this week I thought we would share insights from the Chrisman Report, showing the latest projections from Fannie Mae’s July 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook. 

• Mortgage Rates: Expected to end 2025 at 6.4% and 2026 at 6.0%, revised down from last month’s forecasts of 6.5% and 6.1%.
• Home Price Growth: Projected at 2.8% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026 (Q4/Q4 basis), down from prior estimates of 4.1% and 2.0%.
• Home Sales: Forecasted at 4.85 million units in 2025 and 5.35 million units in 2026.