Weekly Mortgage Rates

September 9, 2025

Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Level of the Year

Mortgage rates reached their lowest level this year on Friday, after ALL the data confirmed a weakening employment picture. Let’s review! 

Here are the highlights from last week’s employment data:

• JOLTS: Job openings continued declining to 7.181 million openings, there are 7.384 million unemployed workers. Now there are more unemployed people than job openings.
• ADP: Private payrolls added 54,000 jobs in August, down from 106,000 in July and below expectations.
• Challenger Job Cuts: Corporate layoffs increased by 20,000 to 86,000.
• BLS August Report: Only 22,000 jobs were added, with June also revised down to a loss of 12,000 jobs. The three-month rolling average is now 29,000 jobs.

• Under Employed: 597,000 full-time jobs have been lost, while part-time jobs increased by 397,000, indicating a shift towards lower quality jobs.

Job Revisions- Highest on Record

This morning the QCEW released its revisions to the employment data for the last fiscal year ending March 2025. Revisions were -911,000 jobs. Meaning more than half the jobs reported never existed. This was higher than last year’s -818,000 revision and beat the previous record for highest revisions set in 2009.

We had today circled on the calendar as another opportunity for lower rates expecting a major revision to the job numbers. Despite the dismal reading no further improvement today in mortgage rates. In fact, rates moved slightly higher after the release.   Not what we expected but with the improvements in the last few weeks, it may just be a signal we have reached a threshold where bond traders aren’t willing to take more risks here.  

This Time Is Different

Last year at this time there were similarities with mortgage rates improving on weaker employment data and the coinciding Fed rate cuts that it prompted. We have mentioned those similarities in the weekly updates over the past few weeks, 

But things are different this time. Last year, the average jobs added per month was 76,000 (this is the average after the huge revisions reported this morning). Currently the 3-month rolling average is 29,000 jobs per month- and this is subject to revisions still too.  

The outlook for mortgage rates is based on a lot of factors, weakening jobs data is just one factor. There are headwinds for long-term rates. Inflation, increased government spending, and elevated debt levels in all the major developed countries have reduced the demand for long-term bonds. These will continue to weigh on how low rates can go.

Market Strategies

SPREAD THE WORD. What a great time to touch base with your clients to let them know rates have improved. Clients may be able to increase their pre-approval amounts now. 

What’s Ahead

Now that we are past the employment news, inflation comes back in focus with PPI and CPI readings starting tomorrow. This could dampen recent rate improvements. We’re locking in clients that are under contract now ahead of the inflation reports and next week’s Fed meeting, especially since no further gains were achieved today after the job revisions. Speaking of the Fed, we will focus on that in next week’s update. For now, let’s make some calls!