Weekly Mortgage Rate Update-10-10-23

 A lot can happen in a week. 

Rates ended last week higher after several reports were released that all pointed to a still strong job market. The only weak data point was Tuesday, ADP private payrolls showed 89k jobs added expectations were for almost twice as many, so a big miss.  Friday, the Non-Farm Payrolls came in way higher than expectations though at 336k jobs added versus 170k expected.  The un-employment rate held at 3.8%.  The two reports contradict each other. Regardless, the Fed looks at the Non-Farm Payrolls closely, so it gets the most weight here with regards mortgage rates.  It is unlikely the Fed will reverse course until unemployment ticks up.

However, geopolitical events over the weekend with the situation in Israel have moved to the front and center of bond traders’ minds.  Uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape causes money to move into safety investments such as longer-term bonds. This move could be short lived, as other factors from the conflict could cause rates to rise, namely oil prices- if they rise this inflationary move may win out over the uncertainty of the conflict.  It is too soon to say the ultimate effect this will have on the direction of mortgage rates.

For the remainder of the week, we get more inflation data with CPI and PPI indexes. For now, pricing is better than Friday and we regained some of our losses.

Here is the video version:  https://clipchamp.com/watch/3KytjDI4MTH

* Specific loan program availability and requirements may vary. Please get in touch with your mortgage advisor for more information.