Weekly Mortgage Rates

November 18, 2025

Here Comes the Sun

With the longest government shutdown in history now over, we can get back to reviewing the economic data...or maybe not. According to the White House some of that data may never see the light of day because the data wasn’t collected during the shutdown.

December Fed Meeting is Live

Odds for a December rate cut continued to fade last week after several Fed members expressed that they are on the side of pausing for December. They warned that cutting too quickly could reignite inflation and that they can’t make the decision without all the data that they usually rely on. 

Powell expressed the same sentiment when he pulled out his familiar fog analogy at the last Fed meeting, signaling that missing data could affect their decision to move. “I’m not going to say it’s going to, but… What do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down.“   

It is unusual for the market to be unsure of the next Fed move with only 17 days till the next meeting, but that could start to shift as the delayed data starts to roll in.

Volatility Ahead

Mortgage rates have been stuck in a narrow range with no clear direction since early September. That may change now as the economic reports start to trickle in. It begins Thursday when we get the September job numbers. Will have to see what impact it has because it is old data now. The bigger question is, will we ever see October & November numbers, if released there will be a question on how much of the data is estimated and not accurate.

Whatever does get released will influence the market’s pricing of a December rate cut, and mortgage rates will react in real time. We are also watching stock market volatility that is also increasing as investors question AI and Tech valuations. Big shifts here can impact mortgage rates too.

The bottom line for clients is that it might get a little choppy for the next couple of weeks so there is an elevated risk to floating your loan rate. Best to stay locked here.