Weekly Mortgage Rates

December 23, 2025

Home on the Range

Mortgage rates have shown very little reaction to the economic releases over the past couple of weeks. They remain mostly unchanged, staying in our well-defined range.

Last week November CPI inflation showed a marked improvement in inflation, coming in at 2.7%, previously 3.0% and expected at 3.1%. Mortgage rates hardly reacted because the report was considered unreliable with no October data and the November data collection didn’t begin until mid-month. 

This morning another surprise: the third quarter GDP was finally released. The headline shows GDP grew at an annual pace of 4.3% for Q3- a full 1% higher than expected. Still rates had little reaction.  Perhaps when we get a full report that is not skewed by the shutdown delays, we will see more of a move in mortgage rates. Also this is all old data, markets what to know what is happening now, not last quarter.

Year-End Rate Review

For all its drama, 2025 saw improvements in home affordability. Inventory levels normalized in most of the country and home price appreciation was mostly flat. Giving buyers a chance to catch up to the market, and gain more negotiating power in the transaction.

Even with the intra-week shifts reported in our updates- mortgage rates showed much less volatility than in the previous three years. For much of the year, 30-year fixed rates settled in range of 6.00% to 6.50%. 

2026: A Window of Opportunity

While we’re not in the business of making predictions, there is a strong case that rates could break below our current trendline in 2026 for better pricing. The labor market is slowing and inflation- while it is at an elevated rate- appears to be staying steady. Plus, a potentially more accommodative Fed chair could take over in May 2026, when Powell’s term ends.

 Of course, there are caveats we should add here: rates may not drop as much as hoped or stay there for long. But based on what we know now, 2026 could offer a good opportunity for our sidelined buyers.

It is a “window” because the longer-term outlook points to a secular shift towards higher bond yields than we have seen in the past. For decades, rates trended lower, driven by globalization. This was followed by unprecedented Fed intervention with QE that drove bond yields to near zero after the Great Recession and escalated during the COVID era. 

Now, global alliances are shifting towards protectionist policies, and governments worldwide are running unsustainable high-deficit spending. This has limited the Fed’s ability to influence the economy. 

Our role is to educate consumers about the potential opportunities ahead. They should know that underlying drivers will likely keep rates at a higher level than in previous decades- but 2026 could present an opportunity to buyers who are ready.    

Signing Off for the Year

This is our last weekly update for 2025.  The next major news won’t hit until the December jobs report on January 9^th. We will resume the weekly updates then. Thank you for following along. Happy holidays to you and looking forward to a successful new year for us all.