Weekly Mortgage Rates 04-09-2026

Weekly Mortgage Rates

April 9, 2026

Mortgage rates are stuck in a highly reactive cycle, with day-to-day volatility driven by unfolding events as the bond market tries to gauge what the conflict means for the economy.

Deal or No Deal

Wednesday morning’s ceasefire announcement sent stocks soaring and oil prices lower and briefly improved mortgage rates. It didn’t last. While stocks held their gains, the bond market gave back all the rate improvements by end of day, closing flat.

The Wall Street Journal describes the ceasefire as “fragile,” citing confusion over the actual terms. The bond market is taking a more pragmatic view than equities, traders want to see real movement through the Strait of Hormuz before pricing in relief from inflationary pressures. Yesterday’s news confirmed that traffic remains restricted, with new tolls now being charged that didn’t exist before the conflict.

Inflation in Focus

This week’s ISM Manufacturing and Services reports both showed a significant jump in the prices-paid component, a key inflation signal. Today’s PCE inflation report for February showed prices rising faster than January, with core PCE coming in at 3.0%. Markets largely shrugged it off as pre-conflict data.

Tomorrow’s CPI reading for March carries more weight — it covers the period when oil prices spiked. Consensus expects a 0.9% monthly gain, putting the annual pace at 3.2–3.4%, up sharply from February’s 2.4%. If that holds, it would be the largest single-month acceleration in the annual inflation rate since June 2022.

What’s Ahead

Middle East developments will continue to drive rate moves. A durable ceasefire with ships moving freely through the strait would help rates. But even if the conflict drags on, eventually demand destruction from slowing economic activity could also provide some downward pressure on rates over time. For now, volatility will continue.