Weekly Mortgage Rates 04-23-2026

Weekly Mortgage Rates

April 23, 2026

After a volatile March, April has settled into a wait-and-see mode for the bond market. Rather than reacting to every headline, mortgage bonds have been trading in a narrow range. Mortgage Commentator Rob Chrisman called the stability- more about indecision than it is about confidence. Indecision and uncertainty are keeping mortgage bonds in a narrow range for now.

The Dawn of a New Fed

Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh was in the hot seat before the Senate Banking Committee this week for his confirmation hearing. The question at the top of mind for markets was whether he can keep the Fed independent from political pressures. He said the president has never asked him to commit to any rate path decisions.

Beyond the question on Fed independence, Warsh laid out a vision for significant change at the Fed. He’s calling it a “regime change” that will use a new inflation framework designed to get ahead of rising prices rather than react to them after the fact. He’s also argued that AI will create a structural decline in costs over time, reducing inflationary pressure and supporting lower rates without overheating the economy. It’s a fresh take and hints at a Fed that may behave very differently from previous Fed leaders.

Consumer Sentiment Is Down- But Spending Is Up

The big economic release this week was the March Retail Sales report. Total sales rose 1.7%, well above the 1.4% forecast. However, the headline number was heavily distorted by a 15.5% surge in gas. When you strip out gas and autos, sales still rose a solid 0.6%, roughly three times the 0.2% that was expected. Retail sales measure dollars spent, not units sold. So, some of this growth may reflect higher prices rather than more buying — consumers spending more and getting less.

On consumer sentiment- The preliminary April University of Michigan reading came in at a historic low of 47.6, an 11% drop from March and the lowest reading in the survey’s 74 year history. The decline was at every income level, age group, and political affiliation. The final April reading releases tomorrow, and it will be telling to see whether the ceasefire has shifted the mood at all from that initial reading earlier in the month.

What’s Ahead

More of the same for now. Economic data is having limited impact on mortgage rates. The Middle East remains the driver. Any meaningful shift in the Iran situation will continue to set the direction for rates.

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