Weekly Mortgage Rates 05-07-2026

Weekly Mortgage Rates

May 7, 2026

Que Sera, Sera - The Future’s Not Ours to See

This has been one of the most volatile weeks for mortgage rates in recent memory. On Monday, oil prices and rates spiked to their highest level in a month after Iran launched missile strikes against the UAE in the first attack since the April ceasefire took effect. Since then, rates improved some on renewed hopes for a peace agreement.

I had to add this paragraph before sending this rate update out- As of today, a senior Iranian spokesman called the draft “unrealistic” and characterized it as more of an American wish list than a workable basis for talks.  Rates have started pushing higher again this afternoon in response.

As has been the case for the past 2 months, mortgage rates will react to any headline out of the Middle East and track the direction of oil prices. The rate outlook remains highly uncertain.

Jobs Data: A Mixed Picture

Tomorrow the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its closely watched April jobs report. Wall Street is expecting roughly 55,000 jobs added, with unemployment holding at 4.3%.

Ahead of that report, this week gave us two conflicting data points:

On the positive side, ADP reported private payrolls rose by 109,000 in April, up from 62,000 in March, the strongest monthly gain since January 2025.  ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that while the headline number was encouraging, it reflects a “low-hire, low-fire” environment with companies reluctant to lay off workers but pulling back on new hiring.

On the other side, Challenger Job Cuts reported 83,387 planned job cuts in April, the highest monthly total in three months and the third-highest April figure in the report’s history, surpassed only by April 2025 and April 2020.  Technology led all sectors with 33,361 cuts, and AI was cited as the leading driver of layoffs for the second consecutive month. 

Tomorrow’s BLS report will add another piece to the puzzle. The current backdrop of a job market that is not so bad, and inflation concerns growing due to elevated energy prices and new supply chain disruptions, it would take a meaningful softening in jobs to see rate relief in this environment.

What’s Ahead

The Middle East remains the dominant driver for rates. Tomorrow’s jobs number could move markets if it surprises, but any ceasefire development will overshadow it. There is no clear trend direction right now. The strategy is to lock on any window of improvement.

Market Strategies

One of our lending partners is offering a free lender-paid temporary rate buydown. It’s a standard fixed-rate loan at today’s market rate but the payment is calculated as if the rate were 1% lower for the first 12 months. There is no cost to the buyer to take advantage of this. Valid on loans locked by the end of June.

This can be a meaningful tool to help buyers with near-term cash flow while keeping a fixed rate long-term. Reach out if you have a buyer who could benefit.