Weekly Mortgage Rates 05-14-2026
Mortgage bonds have held up relatively well after this week’s hot inflation news. Bond traders are always forward looking so, what comes next? Concerns over cost-of-living strains that will lead to lower consumer spending and growth are balancing out the inflation concerns to some extent and keeping rates from moving up much further.
Weekly Mortgage Rates May 14, 2026
It’s Getting Hot In Here The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April was expected to be a hot one, it came in a little hotter than expected. · Headline CPI- +3.8% (March 3.3%) · Core CPI (excludes food & energy)- + 2.8% (March 2.6%)
Producer Price Index (PPI) followed the CPI reading. This measures wholesale prices before it hits the consumer and it came in three times hotter than expected. · Headline PPI- +6.00% · Core PPI (excludes food and energy)- +5.2%
The core readings on both reports show that energy costs are starting to spill over into other prices, leading markets to consider that even when oil prices decline, some of the inflationary pressures will persist.
Labor Market Stable But Consumer Tapping Out Friday’s BLS employment data came in better than expectations at +115k jobs added in April and the unemployment rate held at 4.3% The report reinforced the thought that the labor market is stable.
While the labor market continues to be resilient on the surface, purchasing power is being eroded. The average hourly wages are at 3.6% but with CPI at 3.8%. Real wages- adjusted for inflation- have turned negative for the first time in 3 years.
The strain is showing up in the data. This morning Retail Sales came in at +0.5% as expected, but that is a drop from +1.7% in March. This reading is for dollars spent so may reflect higher prices rather than an increase in units sold; more dollars spent for less goods. Meanwhile credit cards and student loans over 90 days delinquent are at great recession levels.
What’s Ahead Mortgage bonds have held up relatively well after this week’s hot inflation news. Bond traders are always forward looking so, what comes next? Concerns over cost-of-living strains that will lead to lower consumer spending and growth are balancing out the inflation concerns to some extent and keeping rates from moving up much further.
We also officially have a new Fed chair, markets will begin to focus on how he handles inheriting high inflation and in the backdrop of intense scrutiny that the Fed will remain independent and not bend to political pressures.
The China summit is taking some of the focus off Iran and the diplomacy helps calm some of the geopolitical anxiety. Markets are tuned into what the outcome is on trade and perhaps some assistance on Iran negotiations. |