Weekly Mortgage Rates 05-20-2026

Weekly Mortgage Rates

May 20, 2026

Last week things started off relatively stable for mortgage rates. Despite the hotter inflation news, we were still quoting the same rates as the week prior at the timing of our last update. That didn’t last and by the end of the week, rates had moved significantly higher.

We’re Not Going To Take It Anymore

The bond market has entered a new phase. The U.S. China Summit concluded without any resolution to the global energy supply disruption, and bond investors seem to have lost their patience. They are dealing with a triple threat: rising oil prices, rising inflation, and the ever increasing Treasury supply they must absorb driven by runaway government spending.  Having waited long enough for a diplomatic solution, the bond market is taking matters into its own hands.

Almost as soon as the Summit ended, bond yields began rising sharply Thursday afternoon. As we noted in the opening, rates had been relatively well behaved in spite of the hotter inflation numbers released. In hindsight, the bond market appeared to be holding back, waiting to see if anything meaningful came from the Summit to help ease the Middle East Energy situation. When that didn’t happen Bond yields rose fast, along with mortgage rates. 

The Fed minutes were released from the last meeting today. It showed a majority of officials are leaning towards the next Fed move is a hike and not a cut. The bond market is saying they agree and appear to be sending a message to our new Fed Chair Warsh, if you won’t get this under control, we will. 

What’s Ahead

Today, Trump commented that we are in the final stages of a peace deal with Iran and mortgage rates improved from their worsts levels as a result, but still are quite a bit higher than a week ago. Markets are once again pricing in the possibility that maybe this time a deal gets done. An actual agreement would provide a more meaningful relief to rates. If talks fall apart, we are positioned for further deterioration.

With markets closing for the Memorial Day three-day weekend, expect some serious hedging activity by Friday as traders reduce exposure heading into the long weekend where anything is possible.