Weekly Mortgage Rates

January 7, 2026

We kick off the new year with rates hitting some of the lowest points in our recent trading range. This first full week post-holidays often sees parked money exiting bonds (pushing rates up), but geopolitical tensions and upcoming jobs data are keeping rates supported at lower levels.

New Year, New Theme

Geopolitical uncertainty could drive rates in 2026. It often boosts demand for safe-haven bonds, favoring lower mortgage rates, but these news-driven shifts tend to be short-lived and volatile.

This Week’s Focus: Employment Outlook

ADP private payrolls for December 2025 added 41,000 jobs, below the expected 47,000–50,000. JOLTS job openings for November fell to 7.146 million from a forecast of 7.6 million—a trend of shrinking openings signaling a softening labor market, another 2026 theme.

On the bright side ISM services showed stronger-than-expected expansion in December, with hiring up (possibly seasonal).

The big event is Friday’s BLS jobs report for December, and it will be an opportunity to break out of this trading channel we have been stuck in. This is the first full official report in months that was not delayed or compromised by the shutdown- so all eyes are on this.

Market Strategies

Buyers should know housing affordability is at its best level post-COVID with rates trending lower and home prices moderating.

UWM President Mat Ishbia, the nation’s largest lender, calls it officially now a buyer’s market with 37 % more sellers than buyers (per Redfin).

Cotality (previously CoreLogic) recently released its latest housing price index showing a 1.4% gain in home values nationwide for 2025 showing moderation in home prices. However, going forward they are cautiously optimistic that rates may dip and could accelerate price growth to 4.3% for the year. We shall see how things unfold! For now enjoy telling clients that most well qualified buyers are getting quotes with a 5 handle.