Weekly Mortgage Rates- 2-10-2026
Tomorrow’s BLS jobs report could break us out of the range that mortgage rates have been stuck in since September. Today’s rate improvement ahead of this key data puts us at the better end of our recent range and leaves us poised for further improvements.
Weekly Mortgage Rates February 10, 2026
Shop Till You Drop Mortgage rates dropped this morning on a weak retail sales report. The December retail sales report showed 0.0% growth for the month, much lower than the 0.4% expected, with the control group contracting for the month down -0.1%.
This lines up with recent consumer sentiment reports that show most people are not feeling confident about their economic prospects. When you don’t feel confident, you don’t spend.
The inflation outlook improved too with the Employment Cost Index for the 4th quarter of 2025 coming in lower than anticipated, signaling slower wage growth. Import prices also came in flat. Both support the view that inflation is stabilizing.
This Week- A Window of Opportunity Tomorrow’s BLS jobs report could break us out of the range that mortgage rates have been stuck in since September. Today’s rate improvement ahead of this key data puts us at the better end of our recent range and leaves us poised for further improvements.
While Wall Street has pegged January job gains at +69k, many economists think it will be much lower. In addition to the possibility of a weak January report, Bloomberg economists are expecting a major downward revision to the job gains through March 2025 showing almost 1 million jobs reported were never there.
The data has been unreliable in the last couple of years because of issues with the BLS birth/death models that they use to fill in the gaps in the surveys. We only get the true numbers much later through these revisions. If correct, this will show a much weaker employment landscape than previously thought, helping rates to improve.
What’s Ahead Besides the BLS report on Wednesday, Friday’s CPI inflation reading will be key. If inflation is tame and employment worse than expected, this could be a real opportunity for our customers.
The other driver this week is 125 billion in US treasury auctions that will need to be absorbed by the market. Watching the foreign demand as China announced a desire to reduce its holdings of U.S. Bonds. Hopefully nothing derails our momentum now. |