Weekly mortgage rates 2-17-2026
After a better-than-expected inflation reading, January jobs data, AI disruption fears, and growing tensions with Iran, mortgage rates ended the week holding at around the same rates we saw last week- But those are some of the best rates we have seen in 3 years.
Weekly Mortgage Rates February 17, 2026
After a better-than-expected inflation reading, January jobs data, AI disruption fears, and growing tensions with Iran, mortgage rates ended the week holding at around the same rates we saw last week- But those are some of the best rates we have seen in 3 years.
Ocean Front Property in Arizona If you buy the Jobs Report, I’ve got some beachfront property to sell you — because the Jobs Report released Wednesday showed a whopping 130,000 jobs created in January, blowing through market estimates of roughly 75,000, with the unemployment rate ticking down from 4.4% to 4.3%.
The same report included the BLS’s annual benchmark revisions, and they were significant showing 898,000 jobs initially reported never existed, for the period covering April 2024 through March 2025 — the second-largest downward revision on record. After revisions, 2025 showed only 181,000 jobs added for the entire year (15k a month). The labor market had essentially stalled.
Considering that 25 of the last 26 recent monthly job reports have been revised lower after initial release, the market has lost some faith in the headline numbers — and as a result, we didn’t see a big move in mortgage rates from the report.
This isn’t a conspiracy; the monthly payroll figures are survey-based estimates, and because employers don’t file their actual payroll tax data until much later, the BLS fills the gaps using what many economists call a flawed birth/death modeling system to come up with the monthly report. We get the more accurate numbers through the benchmark revision process much later. This makes it difficult for the Fed to make policy decisions in real time.
Mortgage Rates at Best Levels in Three Years That’s the headline for your clients right now. We have been at these levels a few times before, and time will tell whether there’s momentum to push rates down further. Here is what helped this week.
On Friday January CPI report showed inflation moderating more than expected. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) coming in at 2.5%, the lowest reading since March 2021. Markets interpreted the data as progress toward the Fed’s 2% target.
We have some other tailwinds that have been helping rates. After Anthropic released its new AI tool that automates legal and other finance and sales work, a sharp sell-off happened in tech stocks. The AI uncertainty grew over the past week as traders contemplate just how it will disrupt the economy. The concern is causing a risk-off move that is benefiting the safe-haven of U.S. Treasuries- which in turn helps drive mortgage rates.
Escalating tensions with Iran also helping rates for the moment. The U.S. has deployed two carrier strike groups to the region, in case talks fail.
What’s Ahead This week the opportunity for rate movements comes on Friday more inflation news with the PCE inflation release. We also will hear from some Fed members this week to see where they see things. The situation in Iran could continue to support rate markets if it escalates- but these risk off moves tend to be short lived and not a sign of a trend change. |