Weekly Mortgage Rates 3-10-2026

Weekly Mortgage Rates

March 10, 2026

Mortgage rates moved higher last week, driven primarily by the surge in oil prices. The good news is that rates tested the higher end of current rate ranges and held. Ongoing uncertainty is keeping us range bound.

Oil — Black Gold, Texas Tea

U.S. crude futures surged 36% last week — the biggest weekly gain in futures trading history dating back to 1983. Sunday evening, they jumped another ~25%, but prices retreated from that high by Monday afternoon as some tanker traffic began moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices remain elevated and are driven by fast-moving developments in the Middle East.

Mortgage rates are responding to oil because rising energy costs bring inflation back to the forefront of traders’ minds. For now, oil is the dominant driver of rate direction — though that narrative could shift from inflation concern to recession fear depending on how long the disruption lasts.

The Latest Economic News

Jobs: Friday’s February jobs report showed a loss of 92,000 jobs — the third time in five months the economy has shed jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. After downward revisions to the prior two months totaling 69,000 jobs, the three-month rolling average stands at just ~6,000 jobs added per month.

Retail Sales: Consumer spending added to the concern — January retail sales slipped 0.2%, following a flat December, signaling continued softness in consumer demand.

What’s Ahead

Inflation: January PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Thursday.  Its impact may be muted since the data predates the current oil price spike, but it lands just four days before the Fed’s next meeting on March 17–18.

Treasury Auctions: A key 30-year bond auction Thursday will offer a read on appetite for U.S. debt.

Bottom line: Middle East developments will continue to lead mortgage rate direction this week, overshadowing economic data releases.

Market Strategy

Some good talking points for our client conversations in the Chrisman Commentary this morning on the 2026 spring market:

“By the end of 2025, U.S. home-buying power rose to roughly $417,000, surpassing the national median list price of $396,000 for the first time in more than three years and signaling a potential boost to the 2026 spring housing market. Because buyers typically shop based on monthly affordability, purchasing power can improve quickly when mortgage rates decline or incomes rise, while home prices tend to adjust more slowly as sellers anchor expectations to prior market conditions.

The pandemic-era period of ultra-low rates created a substantial affordability cushion, but the sharp rate increases in 2022 reversed that dynamic, pushing buying power below $340,000 and leaving buyers facing roughly a 15 percent affordability deficit by late 2023, which contributed to weak sales activity. That gap gradually closed through 2024 and 2025 as mortgage rates eased, incomes grew, and home price appreciation flattened, and by December 2025 buying power had once again moved ahead of list prices, an alignment that, if sustained alongside modest supply improvements, could support a stronger housing market in 2026.”