Weekly Mortgage Rates 3-20-26

Weekly Mortgage Rates

March 20, 2026

Mortgage rates moved up this week as markets re-calibrate to the rapidly changing landscape caused by the ongoing conflict in Iran.

Too Late To Turn Back Now

The IEA stated last week that the Middle East conflict is creating “the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” At the time, that statement seemed a little dramatic as it came before the mid-week escalation that damaged the world’s largest natural gas export facility, along with several other retaliatory strikes on oil and gas infrastructure throughout the Gulf.

Markets reacted sharply to these events because — even if this conflict de-escalates and the Strait of Hormuz reopens — the destruction of infrastructure will have long lasting impacts on global oil supply.

The G7 and the U.S. announced strategic oil releases to help with supply, and other measures to get oil moving again, but these short-term strategies did little to calm markets for what has become a structural supply shock.

Fed Rate Hike Odds Are Rising

Just a few weeks ago, markets were pricing in rate cuts in the second half of this year. Since Wednesday’s FOMC meeting there are growing odds of a rate hike later this year (Probability tracker currently at 20% for a hike later this year) with zero cuts expected now until sometime in 2027. The ECB this morning signaled that they will hike their funds rate at their next meeting in April. Mortgage pricing is adjusting now to the new rate expectations.

Driving this view is the concern over inflation on the rise even before the recent oil price increases get factored in. PCE last week showed that in February the pace of inflation increased to 3.1%- The highest reading in 2 years. Wholesale prices (PPI) this week showed a jump in prices with core inflation at 3.9%.

“We are in a difficult situation.” Powell made this comment at the FOMC meeting this week. The Fed’s dual mandate is price stability and maximum employment, and both are now at risk. Supporting one risks undermining the other. Higher inflation calls for holding or raising rates, while a softening labor market and slowing growth call for cutting. The result is that the Fed is effectively frozen until one of these becomes more at risk than the other- right now that is tilted towards inflation risk.

What’s Ahead

Mortgage rates began today with another move higher. The bad news is our technical support levels are not holding so there is room for rates to move even higher from here. We have been advising anyone in contract to lock in. 

That said the moves come as the conflict remains in its escalation period. Once it de-escalates and markets turn their attention to the impact higher oil prices have on growth, mortgage rates will improve. With the Fed on hold, geopolitical risk elevated, and inflation still above target, there is no clear catalyst for significant improvement in rates in the near term.