Weekly Mortgage Rates 3-3-2026
Rates on the move higher after the weekend events in the Middle East. Inflation concerns currently overriding any flight-to-safety moves in the bond market
Weekly Mortgage Rates March 3, 2026
Rates on the move higher after the weekend events in the Middle East. Inflation concerns currently overriding any flight-to-safety moves in the bond market
War — What Is It Good For? Absolutely nothing. But it did give us a flight-to-safety move into bonds that helped push mortgage rates lower heading into the weekend.
Over the past few weeks, the 10-year Treasury yield had been declining from a high of 4.30%, finally breaking below the psychologically significant 4.00% level on Friday. Markets had been anticipating military action as assets moved into position. The 10-year revealed it dropping to 3.95% by Friday’s close. Because well, the 10-year don’t lie.
That rally didn’t last. By Monday, bond yields reversed higher along with mortgage rates as investor attention shifted to oil prices and supply chain disruptions tied to the conflict. Previous Middle East skirmishes have caused short-term oil spikes that faded relatively quickly — that’s the optimistic case here. Markets are also weighing the potential impact on federal deficit spending and the duration of the conflict.
Adding to the pressure is the growing chatter that U.S. Treasuries may be losing their traditional safe-haven status. With the dollar weakening and other global assets offering competitive yields, investors have options they didn’t used to have. So much for that 60/40 portfolio as stocks and bonds getting hammered at the same time.
What’s Ahead Besides developing news from the Middle East, the next major catalyst for rates is Friday’s employment report. The Fed is currently stuck as the inflation outlook has shifted from stable to rising, and without meaningful softness in labor market data, rate cut expectations for the second half of the year are being priced out. Expect increased volatility for a bit. |