Weekly mortgage update 1-20-2026
Bond yields began rising on Friday. The 10-year Treasury closed above 4.20% for the first time since the beginning of September, leading to slightly higher rate quotes over the weekend.
Weekly Mortgage Rates
January 20, 2026
Bond yields began rising on Friday. The 10-year Treasury closed above 4.20% for the first time since the beginning of September, leading to slightly higher rate quotes over the weekend.
This Land is Your Land, This Land is My Land
Yields rising in response to Trump’s tariff threats against European nations to pressure a Greenland purchase. Another trade war will cause more rate volatility and a global loss of appetite for US investment. It was short lived before, let’s hope this is just a blip too.
There are other factors pressuring bonds- In Japan bond yields rising as their debt spiral continues, putting pressure on the global bond market.
The Supreme court is set to rule on the legality of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs any day now. A rule against them would eliminate the expected tariff revenue potentially leading to higher bond issuance- increasing yields further.
2026 Housing Market- Steady Rates Increase Buyer Demand
Mortgage applications for the past two weeks show that when rates remain steady and hold near 6% buyer demand increases. Our office can confirm a surge in buying and refinance activity to start the year, the result of sustainably lower rates and lower volatility with rates 1% lower than this time last year. Let’s hope recent events don’t cause us to lose this momentum.
The 10-year Treasury yield is now above the 200-day moving average, a negative technical sign for the rate outlook. The good news is there is a slight disconnect with mortgage rates still holding close to same rates we posted last week, most likely benefiting from the Fannie/Freddie Bond purchases keeping the spreads in check. The bond purchase program may not bring rates down much, but it could help stabilize them.
What’s Ahead
Davos is underway with Trump set to speak tomorrow. Any initiatives floated could cause a market reaction. In addition, PCE inflation measure on Thursday. Most of the moves this week will be based on geopolitical headlines, something you can’t plan for.