Weekly Mortgage Rates

September 23, 2025

It’s Like Rain On Your Wedding Day

It seems ironic that mortgage rates rose after the Fed meeting last week where they cut the Fed Funds rate by .25%. But, considering that 12 out of the last 15 Fed rate decisions have led to the opposite reaction in mortgage rates, maybe we should not be surprised.

After the Fed Meeting, Powell spoke to the press where he called the rate change a ‘risk management cut.” Instead of signaling that this is the start of a trend lower, he held to his mantra of remaining data dependent.

For mortgage rates the focus was on the economic projections released at the meeting. The forecast showed most favor 2 more cuts by year-end but only one cut in 2026, with stronger economic growth and an expectation for inflation to remain elevated until 2028- both are negative for mortgage rates. 

On Thursday, more pressure on rates as jobless claims declined, reversing the previous week’s spike in unemployment claims. Mortgage rates will be very sensitive to any labor news and heavily influence the direction moving forward.

The Relationship Between the Fed Rate and Mortgage Rates

The Fed rate controls short term borrowing rates and immediately impacts rates on credit cards, auto loans, and even HELOCS. Long- term fixed mortgage rates are driven by real-time mortgage bond sales, closely tied to long-term treasury markets.  

Bonds are only forward-looking and anticipated the Fed’s cut, and that is why rates improved before the meeting, but new data has pushed rates up a bit since. Over time Fed and mortgage rates do trend similarly, but the timing of the moves differs. 

What’s Ahead

Rates improved after Powell’s August 22 Jackson Hole comments, peaking at the best levels on September 16^th the day before the Fed meeting. We have been under pressure with rates moving up a bit since then, but still much better than before the August 22^nd shift.

This week, Fed members, now out of the black out period are speaking, the comments could cause a reaction in mortgage rates if the consensus seems to be leading one way or the other. On Friday the PCE inflation report will be a key report to watch.

Market Strategies

We are currently doing a conventional loan for a client with a 515 FICO and the interest rate is in the mid 6’s. Wondering how? Fannie Mae allows for us to “blend” the buyers fico score with the co-borrower to meet the minimum credit score requirement. The other borrower has a 773 so their “blended” score is 644. This is another tool to help make deals work in your conversations with clients.  

Today’s Rates

LICENSED BY THE CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF REAL ESTATE LICENSE A division of TYKY (DRE #01919683) (NMLS LICENSE #257773)

RATES ARE CURRENT AS OF 09-23-2025. SUBJECT TO BORROWER APPROVAL, FICO SCORE, LTV AND PROPERTY TYPE.

*APR IS BASED ON ESTIMATED FINANCE CHARGES OF $6935

**APR BASED ON ESTIMATED FINANCE CHARGES OF $16,430

***APR IS BASED ON ESTIMATED FINANCE CHARGS OF $10,969 THIS INCLUDES FHA MORTGAGE INSURA

NCE PREMIUM

****APR BASED ON ESTIMATED FINANCE CHARGES OF $8343

FEES INCLUDE 1% POINT, $1095 PROCESSING AND $0 UNDERWRITING FEE    

Source info for today’s update: Wall Street Journal, MBS Highway & Rate Alert