Weekly Mortgage Rates

September 30, 2025

You Can’t Always Get What You Want

To see mortgage rates drop, we need weaker economic data and lower inflation. Last week’s numbers didn’t play along.

Second quarter GDP was revised higher from 3.3% to 3.8%- a strong reading on the economy. Retail sales came in hotter than expected and durable goods orders also shot up. Weekly jobless claims released every Thursday have become a closely watched metric, and it showed no increase in claims, declining for two weeks in a row.

The week wrapped up with the PCE inflation reading that came in exactly as expected with Core PCE stuck at 2.9%. The problem is it’s not moving lower and currently it sits higher than last year’s pace.   

Fed- Split on What’s Next

Last week we had quite a few Fed members out speaking in public and it revealed that policy makers are increasingly divided about the future of rate cuts. There are the staunch supporters of more rate cuts citing the risks to the labor market, and others that say we should take a more measured approach due to the inflation concerns.

To be clear, the Fed rate cut did not cause mortgage rates to rise. Mortgage rates ticked up after Fed Chair Powell’s comments and the Fed’s economic projections that showed stronger growth and stickier inflation than previously expected.  Then the data on the economy and inflation that followed caused more upward pressure.

What’s Ahead

While last week’s data didn’t help rates, this week might. This morning, consumer confidence fell from 97.8 to 94.2, mainly due to labor concerns. JOLTS showed job openings remained unchanged at 7.2 million, with 157k more unemployed than there are job openings.  

It’s the first week of the month, so we will get all the news related to labor. There is also potential for a government shutdown that is scheduled tonight if a deal isn’t reached. If it happens, we may not get the BLS jobs report on Friday.  Shutdowns do tend to help mortgage rates temporarily as a flight to safety move. It could be a volatile week for rates ahead with the news so far this week putting rates at about the same as our last update showed.